| 基于KZ滤波法的江淮地区PM2.5浓度变化影响分析 |
| Analysis of the PM2.5 Concentration Changes in Yangtze-Huaihe Region Based on KZ Filter Method |
| 投稿时间：2022-05-05 修订日期：2023-05-18 |
| DOI：10.19316/j.issn.1002-6002.2023.05.08 |
| 中文关键词: 江淮地区 大气细颗粒物 KZ滤波法 气象修正 |
| 英文关键词:Yangtze-Huaihe region atmospheric fine particle KZ filter method meteorological correction |
| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目（2018YFC0213800） |
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| 通讯作者:张付海* 安徽省生态环境监测中心, 安徽 合肥 230071 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 基于2018—2020年合肥、芜湖和马鞍山3个城市国控站点的PM2.5逐日监测数据和同期地面气象观测资料，利用Kolmogorov-Zurbenko（KZ）滤波对PM2.5日浓度的原始时间序列进行分解，获取短期分量、季节分量和长期分量，并进行多元线性逐步回归构建各分量与气象因子的模型，最后依据短期分量和基线分量的回归模型和残差分析，对序列进行重建，获取消除气象条件影响的PM2.5长期分量。KZ滤波分析结果表明：2018—2020年气象条件对江淮区域PM2.5污染改善影响存在波动，在2018—2019年为负贡献，而在2020年秋冬季则变为正贡献；江淮地区3个城市2018年和2020年PM2.5修正后的长期分量均值表明气象条件对各市PM2.5改善影响存在差异较大，气象条件对合肥PM2.5改善的贡献仅为1.0%，芜湖为7.8%，马鞍山为21.0%；NAQPMS数值模式情景分析结果显示，减排措施对江淮之间PM2.5浓度改善贡献率范围为42.5%~104.8%。综合研究表明，减排措施是2020年江淮之间PM2.5浓度改善的主要因素。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Based on daily monitoring data of PM2.5 and surface meteorological observation data in Hefei,Wuhu and Ma'anshan during 2018-2020,Kolmogorov-Zurbenko (KZ) filter was used to decompose the original time series of daily concentration of PM2.5 into short-term component,seasonal component and long-term component in this study.The model of each component and meteorological factors was built by multiple linear stepwise regression analysis.Finally,according to the regression model and residual analysis of short-term component and baseline component to obtain long-term component of PM2.5 without the influence of meteorological conditions.The analysis results showed that the influence of meteorological conditions on pollution improvement of PM2.5 had a fluctuation in Yangtze-Huaihe region,which was a negative contribution from 2018-2019,but became a positive contribution in autumn and winter of 2020.The mean value of corrected long-term component in three cities in Yangtze-Huaihe region showed that there were great differences in the influence of meteorological conditions.The contribution of meteorological conditions to the improvement of PM2.5 was only 1.0% in Hefei,7.8% in Wuhu and 21.0% in Ma'anshan.The contribution of emission reduction measures to the improvement of PM2.5 concentration in Yangtze-Huaihe region was 42.5% to 104.8% based on NAQPMS.In summary,the emission reduction measures were the main factor for the improvement of PM2.5 concentration in Yangtze-Huaihe region in 2020. |
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