| 随州市大气PM2.5组分特征及变化分析 |
| Analysis of Atmospheric PM2.5Component Characteristics and Changes in Suizhou City |
| 投稿时间：2025-01-07 修订日期：2026-01-08 |
| DOI：10.19316/j.issn.1002-6002.2026.02.25 |
| 中文关键词: 随州 PM2.5 组分特征 来源解析 变化分析 预测 |
| 英文关键词:Suizhou City PM2.5 component characteristics source apportionment change analysis forecast |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 为明确随州市PM2.5污染特征和来源,基于2023年随州市PM2.5监测数据进行分析,同时结合2018年的来源解析数据,分析PM2.5变化特征,并预测了未来变化趋势。结果表明,随州市PM2.5年均质量浓度为41 μg/m3,呈现出U型季节变化规律。PM2.5组分重构质量浓度与PM2.5实测质量浓度比值在0.7~1.2之间的数据占比为90.9%,相关系数为0.96,表明数据有效可信。重构中二次离子(SNA)、有机气溶胶(OM)、元素碳(EC)、地壳物质与微量元素平均占比分别为34.2%、26.7%、2.5%、17.8%、6.6%。PM2.5中水溶性离子(WSI)占比为43.6%,WSI主要成分为SNA,平均占比为88.6%,并随污染的加重占比逐渐增加。ρ(NO3-)/ρ(SO42-)全年均值大于1,表明受移动源影响明显。PM2.5中总碳(TC)占比为17.7%,春季和冬季以一次有机碳(POC)为主,夏季和秋季以二次有机碳(SOC)为主。PMF模型解析出7个污染因子,二次源和移动源为主要污染源,但不同季节和污染等级又有各自的特征。与2018年相比,2023年随州市大气中PM2.5与气态污染物浓度(臭氧除外)呈下降趋势,化学组分WSI占比上升了19.7%,TC下降了41.2%,污染来源发生了较大变化。预测未来随州市PM2.5主要来源仍为二次源,且其占比有进一步增加趋势,工业/燃煤源有减小趋势,光化学污染会进一步加重,加强移动源和VOCS管控治理成为未来降低PM2.5的首要任务。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| To clarify the characteristics and sources of PM2.5 pollution in Suizhou City,based on PM2.5 monitoring data in 2023,combined with the source analysis data in 2018,this paper analyzed the change characteristics of PM2.5 in the past five years,and predicted the future change trend.The results show that the average annual concentration of PM2.5 in Suizhou City was 41 μg/m3,showing a U-shaped seasonal variation pattern.After component reconstruction,the ratio of the reconstructed mass concentration to the PM2.5 mass concentration fell within the range of 0.7-1.2 for 90.9% of the data,with a correlation coefficient of 0.96,indicating that the data were valid and reliable.The average proportions of SNA,OM,EC,crustal matter and trace elements in the reconstruction were 34.2%,26.7%,2.5%,17.8% and 6.6%,respectively.Water-soluble ions (WSI) accounted for 43.6% of PM2.5,with SNA as the main component,accounting for 88.6% on average,and the proportion gradually increased with worsening pollution.The annual mean value of ρ(NO3-)/ρ(SO42-) was greater than 1,indicating a significant influence from mobile sources.Total carbon (TC) accounted for 17.7% of PM2.5,with primary organic carbon (POC) in spring and winter,and secondary organic carbon (SOC) dominating in summer and autumn.The PMF model resolved 7 pollution factors,with secondary source and mobile source identified as the main pollution sources,but characteristics varied across seasons and pollution levels.Compared with 2018,the concentration of PM2.5 and gaseous pollutants (except O3) in Suizhou City showed a decreasing trend in 2023,the proportion of WSI in the chemical components increased by 19.7%,while TC decreased by 41.2%,reflecting significant changes in pollution sources.It is predicted that the main source of PM2.5 remains the secondary source in Suizhou City in the future,with its proportion likely to increase further.Industrial/coal combustion sources are expected to decline,and photochemical pollution may intensify,and strengthening the management and control of mobile sources and VOCs will become the primary task to reduce PM2.5 in the future. |
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