| 我国地表水环境质量预报技术进展及在岱海流域的探索实践 |
| Progress in Forecasting Technology of Surface Water Environment Quality in China and Its Exploration Practice in Daihai |
| 投稿时间：2025-09-24 修订日期：2025-11-04 |
| DOI：10.19316/j.issn.1002-6002.2025.S1.04 |
| 中文关键词: 地表水环境 预报预警 概率模型 机理模型 事前管理 |
| 英文关键词:surface water environment forecast and early warning statistical model mechanistic model prior management |
| 基金项目: |
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| 通讯作者:张婷婷* 内蒙古环保投资在线监控有限公司, 内蒙古 呼和浩特 010020 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 研究了近40年来我国水质预报技术的发展历程,分析了水质空间维度预报和时间维度预报的技术演进,明确水质预报机理模型具有更广泛的应用空间,技术发展开始呈现与大数据技术融合的趋势。在岱海水质预报业务实践中,融合大数据和水质预报机理模型技术,构建了以水质预报预警为基础的水环境精细化业务应用体系,探索了岱海水环境"事前管理"新模式。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| This study examines the progress of water quality forecasting technology in China in the past 40 years,analyzing progress in both spatial and temporal dimensions of water quality prediction.It is clear that the water quality forecasting mechanistic models have wider application potential,and technological development is beginning to show a trend of integration with big data technologies.In the operational practice of water quality forecasting in Daihai basin,combined with big data and water quality forecasting mechanism model technology,a refined operational application system for water environment management based on water quality forecasting and early warning has been constructed.This explores a new model of "pre-management" for the water environment in Daihai basin. |
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